All other factors being equal, what are the chances that a guest worker will head toward southern italy rather than germany or belgium

The are so many factors but If all factors are equal this means all three regions have equal everything. Equal amenities and infrastructure; equal reputation and equal affections on the guest worker's mind; equal prospect and as I said earlier. Equal everything! It follows that the guest worker has equal probability of visting all three countries. There would be no preference of one regiona at the other's detriment. There are 3 countries in view. So the probability that he would visit any one country is 1/3. The probability he would head towards southern italy ignoring the high poverty rate there is 1/3.