Task 1 Probability and Likelihood
A team of scientists is studying the animals at a nature reserve. They capture the animals, mark them so they can identify each animal, and then release them back into the park. The table gives the number of animals they’ve identified. Use this information to complete the two tasks that follow.

Animal Total in Park Number Marked
elk 5,625 225
wolf 928 232
cougar 865 173
bear 1,940 679
mountain goat 328 164
deer 350 105
moose 215 86
Part A
What is the probability of the next elk caught in the park being unmarked? Write the probability as a fraction, a decimal number, and a percentage.
Part B
Describe the likelihood of the next elk caught being unmarked.
Part C
Describe a simulation that you can use to model this situation.
Part D
What is the probability of the next wolf caught in the park being unmarked? Write the probability as a fraction, a decimal number, and a percentage.

Part E
Describe the likelihood of the next wolf caught being unmarked.
Part F
Describe a simulation that you can use to model this situation. The simulation should be different from the one in part C.

Part G
In the unit, you found the probability of a compound event by identifying the sample space. However, it is also possible to find the probability of a compound event without finding the sample space. To do this, multiply the probability of the first event by the probability of the second event. For example, the probability of flipping heads twice on a coin is . Using this idea, what is the probability that the next cougar and bear caught will both be unmarked?
Part H
Describe the likelihood that the next cougar and bear caught are both unmarked.
Part I
Describe a simulation that you can use to model this event.
Part J
Using the method described in part G, what is the probability that the next mountain goat, deer, and moose caught are all unmarked?
Part K
Describe the likelihood that the next mountain goat, deer, and moose caught are all unmarked.
Part L
Describe a simulation that you can use to model this event. Your simulation should be different from the one in part I.