Urn 1 contains 4 blue tokens and 9 red tokens; urn 2 contains 12 blue tokens and 5 red tokens. You flip a coin twice and if you see head two times, then you pick urn 2 else (if you see at least once the tail) you pick urn 1 and draw out a token at random from that urn. Given that the token is blue, what is the probability that the token came from urn 2