It is estimated that approximately 12% of the population has a certain disease. The standard test for the presence of the disease is good, but not 100% accurate. If the person has the disease, the test will return a positive result with probability 0.92 (sensitivity). If the person does not have the disease, the test will return a negative result with probability 0.985 (specificity). A randomly selected person is tested for the disease. Required:
a. Draw a probability tree describing this situation.
b. Compute the probability the randomly selected person will receive a positive test result.
c. Given the person receives a positive test result, compute the probability they have the disease. This is called the positive predictive value.