Forty percent of the beads in a bag of more than 10,000 beads are yellow. Suzy pulls out 10 beads, one
at a time with replacement, and notes that eight of
these beads are yellow. She says the next bead pulled
out will not be yellow because a yellow bead has been
pulled out too many times in a row.
Is Suzy's reasoning correct?
Yes, it is unlikely that she would pull out so many
yellow beads, so the next bead cannot be yellow.
Yes, Suzy has correctly decided that more than 40%
of the beads in this large bag are yellow.
O No, if a yellow bead is pulled 8 out of 10 times, the
bag of beads is unfairly weighted toward yellow.
No, it is true that the probability of pulling a yellow
bead is 0.40, but Suzy should not expect that exactly
40% of such a small number of beads pulled will be
yellow.