A special tool manufacturer has 50 customer orders to fulfill. Each order requires one special part that is purchased from a supplier. However, typically there are 2% defective parts. The components can be assumed to be independent. If the manufacturer stocks 52 parts, what is the probability that all orders can be filled without reordering parts

0.65463

Step-by-step explanation:

From the given question:

It is stated that 2% of the parts are defective (D) out of 50 parts

Therefore the probability of the defectives;

i.e  p(defectives) =

p(defectives) =

p(defectives) = 0.04

The probability of the failure is the P(Non-defectives)

p(Non-defectives) =  1 - P(defectives)

p(Non-defectives) =  1 - 0.04

p(Non-defectives) =  0.96

Also , Let Y be the number of non -defective out of the 52 stock parts.

and we need Y ≥ 50

P( Y ≥ 50) , n = 52 , p = 0.96

P( Y ≥ 50) = P(50 ≤ Y ≤ 52) = P(Y = 50, 51, 52)

= P(Y = 50) + P(Y =51) + P(Y=52)    (disjoint events)

P(Y = 50) =

P(Y = 50) = 0.27557

P(Y = 51) =

P(Y = 51) = 0.25936

(Y = 52) =

P(Y = 52) = 0.1197

∴

P(Y = 50) + P(Y =51) + P(Y=52) = 0.27557 + 0.25936 + 0.1197

P(Y = 50) + P(Y =51) + P(Y=52) = 0.65463

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