g Suppose I will flip a fair coin until it lands Heads for the first time, and you will receive $2 if the game lasts for 1 round, $4 if the game lasts for 2 rounds, $8 if the game lasts for 3 rounds, and in general, $2n if the game lasts for n rounds. How much would you be willing to pay to play this game once

Step-by-step explanation:

The main idea is that I would like to pay less than what I'm expecting to win, so in that way, I get a profit out of playing this game. Let X be the number of tosses until I get a Heads. By definition, this is a geometric random variable with parameter p = 1/2.

Let Y the amount I received for playing. So, we want to calculate the expected value of Y.

We can calculate it as follows

Since X is a geometric random variable, we have that

Then,

So, we expect to have an infinite amount. Given this, we can pay as much as we want to play the game.

3.76%

step-by-step explanation:

85.560%

step-by-step explanation:

conditional probability is defined as:

p(a|b) = p(a∩b) / p(b)

in other words, the probability that a occurs, given that b has occurred = the probability that both a and b occur / the probability that b occurs.

in this example:

p(turns 64 | turns 44) = p(turns 64 & turns 44) / p(turns 44).

if someone turns 64, they must have already turned 44, so:

p(turns 64 | turns 44) = p(turns 64) / p(turns 44)

on page 42, we see that of the original 100,000, 94944 turn 44, and 81234 turn 64.   therefore:

p(turns 64 | turns 44) = 81234 / 94944

p(turns 64 | turns 44) = 0.85560