You are a regulator for the Securities and Exchange Commission who is in charge of investigating whether a company has violated laws against insider trading. Your initial investigation has revealed no evidence of wrongdoing. However, you know that it is difficult to uncover secret activity, and that only 1 3 of investigations will correctly identify guilt. Of course, if the company is innocent, there is no chance of finding anything. You also estimate that 1 in 5 instances of trading similar to this one are actually illegal. What is the probability that the company is guilty, given that your initial investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing?