Mathematics, 06.03.2020 15:20 tylersabin72
Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 56 2 59 3 61 4 68 5 77 6 78 7 79 8 80 9 80 10 84 11 86 12 80 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4β12. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4β12 using weights of 0.30 (for the period tβ1); 0.40 (for the period tβ2), and 0.30 (for the period tβ3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.) c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2β12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 55 and an Ξ± of 0.20. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2β12 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.90, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F1) of 57, an Ξ± of 0.20, and a Ξ΄ of 0.10. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4β12. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) e-2. Which forecasting method is best? Three-month weighted moving average Exponential smoothing with trend forecast Single exponential smoothing forecast Three-month moving average
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