A multiple choice exam has 4 choices for each question. A student has studied enough so that the probability they will know the answer to a question is 0.5, the probability that they will be able to eliminate one choice is 0.25, otherwise all 4 choices seem equally plausible. If they know the answer they will get the question right. If not, they have to guess from the 3 or 4 choices. As the teacher, you want to test to measure what the student knows. If the student answers a question correctly, what is the probability they knew the answer?

probability that the student knew the answer given that he answered the question correctly is 0.7742 (77.42%)

Step-by-step explanation:

a student can get the question right in 3 ways:

- knowing the answer with probability 0.5

- eliminating one of the 4 choices and guessing with the remaining 3 with probability 0.25

- or guessing from the 4 choices with probability 0.25

then defining the event R= getting the answer right , we have

P(R)= probability of knowing the answer*probability of getting the question right if knowing the answer + probability of eliminating one answer* probability of getting the question right if eliminates one answer + probability of guessing the 4 choices * probability of getting the question right if guessing the 4 choices

thus

P(R)= 0.5*1 + 0.25* 1/3 + 0.25*1/4 = 0.6458

then we use conditional probability through the theorem of Bayes. Defining K= student knew the answer

then

P(K/R) = P(K∩R) /P(R) = 0.5*1/0.6458 = 0.7742 (77.42%)

where

P(K∩R) = probability that the student knew the answer and answers the question correctly

P(K/R)=  probability that the student knew the answer given that he answered the question correctly

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