Your firm manufactures computers. you are sent a very large shipment of chips by a supplier. you want to accept this shipment only if ten percent or less of the chips are defective, which is the supplier’s claim. your procedure for deciding whether to accept the shipment is to randomly select a sample of 10 chips, test them, and accept the shipment if there are either zero defectives or one defective among the ten. suppose you discover three defectives among the ten in your sample. which is "more likely", (i) there really are ten percent defectives, and this particular sample of ten is unusual, or (ii) the true proportion of defectives is twenty percent?