In answering on a multiple choice test, a student either know the answer or guesses. let p be the probability that the students knows the answer and 1-p be the probability that the student guesses. assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 1/m, where m is the number of multiple choice alternatives. what is the conditional probability that a student knew the answer to a question when he or she answered it correctly?

Step-by-step explanation:

For mutually exclusive events as A1, A2, A3, etc, Bayes' theorem states:

P(A|B) is a conditional probability: the likelihood of event A occurring given that B is true.

P(B|A) is a conditional probability: the likelihood of event B occurring given that A is true.

P(A) is the probability that A occurs

P(B) is the probability that B occurs

For this problem:

A1 is the probability that the student knows the answer

A2 is the probability that the student guesses the answer

B is the probability that the student answer correctly

P(B|A₁) means the probability that the answer is correct when he knew the answer

P(B|A₂) means the probability that the answer is correct when he guessed the answer

P(A₁|B) means the probability that he knew the answer when the answer was correct

Replacing everything in the Bayes' theorem you get:

"if it is my birthday, then it is snowing"

just do 5.2 + 2 ( 7.2) and 1/3 x 3 (.9) and youv'e got your equation. 0.9( 9/10) + 7.2 ^2 = 16.4 hope i could !

step-by-step explanation: