An economist says that there is "absolutely no chance" of a country's economy being in a recession in the last quarter of the year. however, a leading economic indicator which has a 70% probability of giving a correct indication, suggests that there will be a recession in this quarter. given that the indicator is unbiased, the posterior probability of a recession in the last quarter of the year is: (a) (b) (c) (d) 0 0.7 1 impossible to calculate based on the information given