Oscar has lost his dog in either forest a (with a priori probability 0.4) or in forest b (with a priori probability 0.6). on any given day, if the dog is in a and oscar spends a day searching for it in a, the conditional probability that he will find the dog that day is 0.25. similarly, if the dog is in b and oscar spends a day looking for it there, the conditional probability that he will find the dog that day is 0.15. the dog cannot go from one forest to the other. oscar can search only in the daytime, and he can travel from one forest to the other only at night. in which forest should oscar look to maximize the probability he finds his dog on the first day of the search? given that oscar looked in a on the first day but didn't find his dog, what is the probability that the dog is in a? if oscar flips a fair coin to determine where to look on the first day and finds the dog on the first day, what is the probability that he looked in a?