Acertain genetic condition affects 8% of the population in a city of 10,000. suppose there is a test for the condition that has an error rate of 1% (i. e., 1% false negatives and 1% false positives).

consider the values that would complete the table below.

has condition does not have condition totals

test positive

test negative

totals

what is the probability (as a percentage) that a person has the condition if he or she tests positive? (round your answer to one decimal place.)

Let be the event that a randomly selected person has the condition, and the event that the test returns a positive result. We are given that

(false positive; that is, the event that the test incorrectly returns a positive result)

(false negative; incorrectly returns a negative result)

We want to find . By definition of conditional probability,

By the same definition,

and by the law of total probability,

So we have (and this is known as Bayes' rule)

don't give

take it once

try and try and you will not

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6mm^3 or .6cm^3

      216

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  36     6

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6     6   6

factor trees are nice.