Which scale of measurement most reasonably applies to confidence in science

Which of the following accounts for someone who has had regular herpesvirus-mediated cold sore or genital sore flare-ups? a) re-infection by a closely related herpesvirus of a different strainb) re-infection by the same herpesvirus strainc) copies of the herpesvirus genome permanently maintained in host nucleid) copies of the herpesvirus genome permanently maintained in host cell cytoplasm