The effect of El Nino and La Nina On South Africa's Climate​

The effects of the El Nifio are most pronounced

in late summer (Dec - Mar: Mason

and Jury, 1997, Richard et al, 2000), and the effects are strongest in the No11h East of the

country (Richard et al, 200 l ). Across South Africa, five regions have a consistent response

( 14 out of 20) to the El Nifio episodes since 190 l (Nicholson and Kim. 1997). However.

since the 1970s the ENSO signal in the tropical western Indian Ocean SSTs has weakened

(Landman and Mason, 1999b) and the relationships between ENSO and southern Africa

rainfall has been modified (Richard et al, 2000). Prior to 1970, the late summer (Jan - Mar)

was typically wet in the year following the low - index year of the Southern Oscillation

Index, whereas between 1970 and 1994 these months were generally anomalously dry (5 out

of 6 events: Richard et aL 2000). Additionally. it appears that across southern Africa the

rainfall response has been more spatially coherent since 1970 (Richard et al, 2000).

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