English, 10.12.2021 17:50 ecarter8967
Maya said farewell to her favorite uncle as he boarded a plane for Paris. That night she dreamed about an airplane that ran into a thunderstorm and crashed into a mountain, killing everyone on board. When she woke up, she learned that her uncle’s plane had encountered violent turbulence on the way to Paris and that several passengers had been injured on the flight. She concluded that this series of events (E) is very strong evidence that she has the ability to see distant things using only her mind (H). Maya thinks that E is strong evidence for H. Assuming she has updated properly given her probability assignments, what does this mean about her assignments to P(E|~H) and P(E|H)? For each of these values, how might you challenge her assignment? (Don’t focus on P(H) and P(~H).)
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