Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows: Week Demand($)
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124
5 96
6 119
7 96
8 102
9 112
10 102
11 92
12 91
Using the Hot Pizza weekly demand figures provided, estimate demand for Week 4 to Week 12 by using a 3-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.2. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? Include all calculations as well as your narrative explanation and summary.

MAD:  10.04,  11.53

MAPSE: 10% ,  12%

MSE : 146.33,  178.72

Bias : -0.56 , -0.96

3-week moving average method is better

Explanation:

i ) Evaluate MAD ( average of absolute errors )

using  3 week moving average

= 10.04

using simple exponential smoothing

= 11.53

ii) MAPSE ( average of absolute percentage error )

using 3 week moving average

= 10%

using simple exponential smoothing

= 12%

iii) MSE ( average of Squared Errors )

3 week MV = 146.33 ,  Simple exponential smoothing = 178.72.

iv) Bias

3 week MV = -5/9 = -0.56,  Simple exponential smoothing = -8.69/9 = -0.96.

v) TS  ( Total error / MAD )

3 week MV = -5 / 10.04 = -0.49 ,

simple exponential smoothing  = -8.69 / 11.53 = -0.75

b) I prefer 3-week moving average based on the values of MAD , MAPE, MSE, bias and TS which shows that there is a better estimate when using the 3 -weeks moving average.

Attached below is the Tabular calculations of the required parameters for the  question

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