An ARMA(3, 0) model is fit to the following quarterly time series: Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 2018 3.53 1.33 1.85 0.61 2019 0.98 3.61 3.44 3.38 2020 2.91 2.12 4.62 2.93 The estimated coefficients are: ar1 ar2 ar3 intercept 0.252 0.061 -0.202 2.637 Forecast the value for Quarter 1 of 2021. Give full explanation on how you arrived to your answer. Show calculations. A. Less that 3.00 B. At least 3.00, but less than 3.25 C. At least 3.25, but less than 3.50 D. Atleast 3.50, but less than 3.75 E. At least 3.75.

 A. Less that 3.00

Explanation:

We will essentially be using a multiple regression formula to predict the value of the first quarter of 2021.

Equation is:

Y₂₀₂₁ = Intercept + ar1X₁ + ar2X₂ + ar3X₃

Y = Quarter 1, 2021

X₁ = Quarter 1, 2018

X₂ = Quarter 1, 2019

X₃ = Quarter 1, 2020

= 2.637 + (0.252 * 3.53) + (0.061 * 0.98) + (-0.202 * 2.91)

= 2.99852

This is less than 3 so the first option is correct.

the correct answer is:

it required the president to inform congress within forty-eight hours of any new troop commitment.

the war powers resolution (1973) is a federal law designed to limit the u.s. president’s ability to initiate or intensify military actions abroad without the approval of the congress.

it establishes that the president can send armed forces into action abroad only by declaration of war by congress, statutory authorization, or in case of a national emergency created by attack upon the united states, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.

it requires the president to notify congress within 48 hours of sending armed forces to military action.