To create a delta-neutral portfolio, the YRU fund has sold 10,000 call options on Neutral stock with a strike price of $120 when the shares were trading at $100. Jack Jackson, its risk manager, uses the Black-Scholes model to value all its option exposures. The current price of the shares is $105. The annualized standard deviation of Neutral stock returns is 20% and the option expires in six months. The capital asset pricing model holds exactly and Neutral stock has a beta of zero. If the risk-free rate is 2%, approximately. what is the likelihood that this option will be exercised