Brandt Enterprises is considering a new project that has a cost of $1,000,000, and the CFO set up the following simple decision tree to show its three most likely scenarios. The firm could arrange with its work force and suppliers to cease operations at the end of Year 1 should it choose to do so, but to obtain this abandonment option, it would have to make a payment to those parties. How much is the option to abandon worth to the firm?

$61.03

Explanation:

The decision tree is a flow like chart which enables to identify the best decision based on the possible probabilities of multiple events. The technique of decision tree is used when there are various options. Every decision is placed on the node of the leaf. These nodes are assigned a probability which makes it easy for the managers to take decision.

In the given scenario the CFO of Brandt Enterprises has created a decision tree as with probabilities 20% of $800, 60% of $520 and 20% of $200 in the year . The NPV estimate is $46.57 for all the probabilities. The firm will have to incur $61.03 to abandon at year 1 .

rational decision making is a multi-step process for making choices between alternatives. the process of rational decision making favors logic, objectivity, and analysis over subjectivity and insight. the word “rational” in this context does not mean sane or clear-headed as it does in the colloquial sense.

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