One of Mabel Smith’s investments is going to mature, and he wants to determine how to invest the proceeds of $30,000. Mabel is considering two new investments: a stock mutual fund and a one-year certificate of deposit (CD). The CD is guaranteed to pay an 8% return. Mabel estimates the return on the stock mutual fund as 16%, 9%, or 22%, depending on whether market conditions are good, average, or poor, respectively. Mabel estimates the probability of a good, average, and poor market to be 0.1, 0.85, and 0.05, respectively.
a. Construct a payoff matrix for this problem.
b. What decision should be made according to the maximax decision rule?
c. What decision should be made according to the maximin decision rule?
d. What decision should be made according to the minimax regret decision rule?
e. What decision should be made according to the EMV decision rule?
f. What decision should be made according to the EOL decision rule?
g. How much should Mabel be willing to pay to obtain a market forecast that is 100% accurate?