1. Problem – Forecast:
Using the from the table below, Develop 3 different forecast mode...
1. Problem – Forecast:
Using the from the table below, Develop 3 different forecast models for Periods 19 through 24
a. Forecast # 1: Use 2 period moving average model forecast
b. Forecast # 2: Use 3 period moving average model forecast
c. Forecast # 3: Use Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model
Calculate the MFE & MAD and APE for Periods 19 through 24 (n = 6) for all 3 Forecast.
Show all your manual calculations and formulas on the last page.
Forecast Data:
Month Period Demand
(passengers) Month Period Demand
(passengers)
Jan. 2015 8 3040 October 17 3230
February 9 3360 November 18 2960
March 10 3600 December 19 3200
April 11 4580 Jan. 2016 20 3360
May 12 4720 February 21 3590
June 13 4620 March 22 3930
July 14 4140 April 23 5710
August 15 4150 May 24 5470
September 16 3810
a. 2-period moving average model forecast for Periods 19 through 24
Month Period Demand
(passengers) 2-period forecast Forecast error Absolute deviation (APE)
Absolute Percentage
Error
September
October
November
December
Jan. 2006
February
March
April
May
Means:
b. 3-period moving average model forecast for Periods 19 through 24
Month Period Demand
(passengers) 2-period forecast Forecast error Absolute deviation (APE)
Absolute Percentage
Error
September
October
November
December
Jan. 2006
February
March
April
May
Means:
c. Develop an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model with α = 0.35 for Periods 19 through 24. (n = 6) for the resulting forecast model. Assume your forecast for period 18 was 2900
Month Period Demand
(passengers) ESM forecast Forecast error Absolute deviation (APE)
Absolute Percentage
Error
November
December
Jan. 2006
February
March
April
May
Means:
Answers: 2
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