A researcher administers a survey on issues related to the U. S. health care system to a sample consisting of 60% medical doctors, 30% economists, and 10% lawyers. One of those people surveyed was William, who is 50 years old, wears a shirt and tie, and is good with numbers. William is concerned that the expense of our current health care system will ultimately cause it to collapse. Which statement MOST likely describes William's occupation?

A) It is equally likely that William is a doctor or an economist, but unlikely that he is a lawyer.
B) William is probably a doctor.
C) William is probably a lawyer.
D) William is probably an economist.

Option B William is probably a doctor

Explanation:

The reason is that he is specifically pointing out the health care system with no specific judgement and hasn't based his views on authentic information neither he has used any numerical values in his statement. The doctors might think that the expenses are high enough but the economist compares the government spending on health care with a number of different countries and considers its value generation on a number of variables. For example, the statistical data that the economist uses are based on the spending of US to recover a unit patient from accidents, etc. So William is most likely a doctor.

D) William is probably an economist.

Explanation:

Statistically there is a 60% chance of William being a doctor, 30% of him being an economist and only 10% for him being a lawyer.

Using my own life experience and probably prejudice, I would say that he is not a doctor. My father was a doctor and so are 4 or 5 extended family members, and I never saw them working with a shirt and tie only. Usually doctors either wear an apron or a suit when they are managers. I don't recall ever seeing a doctor dress like that, at least while working.

Many people think that doctors do not like numbers, but it is not true. When talking about health care doctors are extremely specific about budget problems and each one has a solution for it. Some will tell you that lawsuits are too expensive, therefore professional insurance is expensive and that drives costs too high. Others will blame pharmaceutical companies, etc. But they are all very specific, since they live it everyday. So definitely he isn't a doctor.

So that leaves only two options, lawyers and economists. Since there is a 3 to 1 chance of William being an economist I will go for it. Lawyers tend o argue about the good and bad consequences of actions, but not generally their cost.

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