Due to a recession, expected inflation this year is only 4.25%. However, the inflation rate in Year 2 and thereafter is expected to be constant at some level above 4.25%. Assume that the expectations theory holds and the real risk-free rate (r*) is 3.5%. If the yield on 3-year Treasury bonds equals the 1-year yield plus 1.5%, what inflation rate is expected after Year 1? Round your answer to two decimal places.

Explanation:

Yield on 1 year trasury bond: r1=4.25+3.5 = 7.75%

Now, yield is r3 = 7.75+1.5 = 8.25%

r3=r*+inf

8.25=3.5+inf

inf=4.75%

4.75 = (4.25+i+i)/3

14.25 = 4.25 +2i

2i = 10

i = 5%

Inflation expected after year 1 is 5%

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answer; competency based pay;