You come across a scientific study reported in the New York Times. The study says that adults who played varsity sports in high school are 20 percentage points more likely to have graduated college with a bachelor’s degree than adults who did not. a) Identify the outcome variable in this studyb) Identify the treatment variable (or policy variable) in this studyc) What is the counterfactual scenario for high school varsity athletes?d) Why is it important to think about the counterfactual scenario?e) Do you think that the correlation reported in this study is a causal effect? Why or why not?f) What is the value of the naive treatment effect of this study, assuming that the correlation is causal? What is its interpretation?g) If someone constructed an experiment to answer this question, what would it look like? Is such an experiment possible? Explain.

There is no short answer.

Explanation:

We are given an article that presents a study that suggests adults who played varsity sports in high school have a 20% higher chance of earning a bachelor's degree in college than the ones who did not play during high school.

The outcome variable in this example, which is also the same as a dependent variable, is the chance of graduating from college with a bachelor's degree, which depends on whether that person played varsity sports during their high school years or not.

The treatment variable in this example, which is also the same as an independent variable, is whether the subject played varsity sports in high school or not which affects their chances of graduating from college with a bachelor's degree.

Counterfactual means thinking about an event in a way that did not actually happen, counter to the facts and it helps people feel more in control which in turn provides a psychological soothing effect. Counterfactual scenario in the given example for high school athletes would be not being able to earn a bachelor's degree despite having played sports in high school.

Thinking about the counterfactual scenario is important because it helps people get a sense of power and a feeling of control which is a primal instinct the brain needs to feel safe.

I hope this answer helps.

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